High Probability Advisors, LLC
Reported holdings as of Q2 2026, from 23 quarterly filings.
This filer last reported in Q2 2026; the most recent quarter on file across all filers is Q3 2026. Firms that restructure stop filing under one CIK and start under another, so a successor entity may hold these positions now under a similar name.
Holdings
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| Security | Ticker | Value | Shares | Weight | Weight change | Held | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR | GSLC | $117.3M | 827,017 | -0.08pp | 23q | +4.9%+$5.5M | |
| ISHARES TR | MTUM | $110.4M | 322,023 | +2.15pp | 23q | +2.5%+$2.6M | |
| DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST | DUHP | $67.2M | 1,609,605 | +0.05pp | 17q | +6.1%+$3.9M | |
| BLACKROCK ETF TRUST | DYNF | $59.9M | 881,484 | +0.22pp | 8q | +5.9%+$3.4M | |
| ISHARES TR | NYF | $51.5M | 956,143 | +0.24pp | 23q | +23.3%+$9.8M | |
| GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR | GSIE | $48.6M | 1,063,683 | -0.26pp | 23q | +7.5%+$3.4M | |
| DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST | DIHP | $44.6M | 1,307,603 | -0.27pp | 17q | +7.0%+$2.9M | |
| SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR | SCHO | $42.5M | 1,758,868 | -0.69pp | 18q | +4.5%+$1.8M | |
| ISHARES TR | USMV | $40.2M | 417,169 | -0.37pp | 23q | +6.0%+$2.3M | |
| SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR | SCHR | $38.8M | 1,574,348 | +0.10pp | 8q | +23.7%+$7.4M | |
| AMERICAN CENTY ETF TR | AVUV | $36.9M | 295,565 | -0.02pp | 10q | +5.4%+$1.9M | |
| FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST | FVAL | $34.6M | 443,665 | -0.07pp | 23q | +4.5%+$1.5M | |
| SPDR SERIES TRUST | SPIB | $31.4M | 939,100 | -0.46pp | 18q | +5.4%+$1.6M | |
| AMERICAN CENTY ETF TR | AVEM | $28.0M | 289,841 | +0.15pp | 18q | +5.3%+$1.4M | |
| FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST | FQAL | $27.8M | 341,750 | -0.06pp | 23q | +4.6%+$1.2M | |
| ISHARES TR | SHYG | $24.1M | 568,588 | -0.31pp | 18q | +6.6%+$1.5M | |
| ISHARES TR | IUSV | $20.9M | 189,323 | -0.10pp | 23q | +6.2%+$1.2M | |
| ISHARES TR | IVLU | $15.9M | 380,882 | -0.14pp | 23q | +5.1%+$773.0K | |
| GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR | GSSC | $15.4M | 169,229 | +0.12pp | 23q | +5.6%+$815.0K | |
| SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR | FNDC | $14.9M | 306,034 | -0.13pp | 23q | +5.6%+$788.4K | |
| SPDR SERIES TRUST | SPTL | $11.9M | 454,386 | -0.08pp | 18q | +12.6%+$1.3M | |
| STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF T | SPY | $9.5M | 12,724 | -0.04pp | 23q | HELD | |
| SPDR SERIES TRUST | SPYM | $5.2M | 58,738 | +0.01pp | 12q | +6.1%+$299.0K | |
| VANGUARD MUN BD FDS | VTEB | $4.8M | 95,878 | +0.06pp | 23q | +32.7%+$1.2M | |
| ISHARES TR | IWV | $2.2M | 5,180 | -0.01pp | 23q | HELD | |
| ISHARES TR | REZ | $2.2M | 23,102 | -0.01pp | 21q | HELD | |
| ISHARES TR | IXUS | $2.0M | 20,709 | flat | 23q | +6.2%+$115.7K | |
| ISHARES TR | IVV | $1.8M | 2,422 | -0.01pp | 5q | +1.3%+$24.0K | |
| ISHARES TR | IWD | $1.5M | 6,221 | -0.01pp | 23q | HELD | |
| APPLE INC | AAPL | $1.4M | 4,848 | -0.01pp | 23q | HELD | |
| DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST | DFAC | $1.3M | 29,474 | -0.01pp | 10q | -4.4%-$60.1K | |
| SPDR SERIES TRUST | SPMD | $1.2M | 18,251 | flat | 12q | +5.7%+$66.5K | |
| ISHARES TR | ACWX | $1.2M | 15,908 | -0.01pp | 16q | HELD | |
| SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR | SCHB | $1.1M | 37,355 | flat | 10q | +2.0%+$21.2K | |
| ISHARES TR | IWM | $984.0K | 3,275 | flat | 23q | HELD | |
| BROADSTONE NET LEASE INC | BNL | $971.8K | 47,014 | -0.02pp | 22q | -9.5%-$102.0K | |
| MICROSOFT CORP | MSFT | $770.9K | 2,067 | -0.03pp | 22q | -10.2%-$88.0K | |
| ALPHABET INC | GOOGL | $766.6K | 2,145 | flat | 5q | -3.6%-$28.9K | |
| ISHARES TR | IJR | $732.2K | 4,937 | flat | 23q | -0.8%-$5.8K | |
| TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLC | TT | $668.0K | 1,360 | flat | 13q | -2.8%-$19.2K | |
| VANGUARD TAX-MANAGED FDS | VEA | $661.7K | 9,286 | -0.01pp | 4q | HELD | |
| DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST | DFAT | $606.2K | 8,672 | flat | 10q | HELD | |
| ISHARES TR | OEF | $589.1K | 1,610 | flat | 23q | HELD | |
| EATON CORP PLC | ETN | $522.4K | 1,226 | -0.01pp | 13q | -8.4%-$47.7K | |
| ISHARES TR | ACWI | $510.6K | 3,253 | flat | 23q | HELD | |
| ISHARES TR | GVI | $508.9K | 4,797 | -0.01pp | 23q | HELD | |
| MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | MU | $498.7K | 432 | - | new | NEW | |
| GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR | GBIL | $472.1K | 4,713 | -0.01pp | 4q | HELD | |
| ISHARES TR | IEI | $458.3K | 3,902 | -0.01pp | 23q | +0.6%+$2.8K | |
| NVIDIA CORPORATION | NVDA | $427.2K | 2,135 | +0.01pp | 2q | +30.3%+$99.2K | |
| SPDR SERIES TRUST | SPSM | $402.3K | 6,977 | flat | 8q | +4.7%+$18.2K | |
| ISHARES TR | SUSA | $398.9K | 2,585 | flat | 6q | HELD | |
| DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST | DFUV | $365.6K | 6,646 | flat | 10q | HELD | |
| HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP INC | HIG | $364.4K | 2,750 | -0.01pp | 11q | HELD | |
| HOME DEPOT INC | HD | $344.2K | 976 | -0.01pp | 15q | -3.3%-$11.6K | |
| SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR | SCHA | $319.4K | 8,840 | flat | 11q | HELD | |
| TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | TSM | $317.1K | 664 | -0.01pp | 3q | -39.1%-$203.9K | |
| ISHARES TR | IJH | $295.4K | 3,831 | flat | 3q | HELD | |
| VISA INC | V | $284.1K | 828 | flat | 4q | -3.8%-$11.3K | |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | JPM | $269.7K | 824 | -0.01pp | 5q | -8.4%-$24.9K | |
| COHERENT CORP | COHR | $266.3K | 675 | - | new | NEW | |
| AMAZON COM INC | AMZN | $261.2K | 1,096 | flat | 2q | HELD | |
| CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDI | CRDO | $243.4K | 895 | - | new | NEW | |
| ABBVIE INC | ABBV | $240.1K | 954 | flat | 3q | -3.5%-$8.8K | |
| VANGUARD STAR FDS | VXUS | $217.2K | 2,541 | - | new | NEW | |
| ASML HLDG NV | ASML | $214.9K | 108 | - | new | NEW | |
| ISHARES TR | SUB | $209.8K | 1,971 | flat | 11q | HELD | |
| APPLIED MATLS INC | AMAT | $208.9K | 289 | - | new | NEW | |
| HOWMET AEROSPACE INC | HWM | $208.9K | 777 | - | new | NEW | |
| BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL | BRKB | $206.2K | 412 | - | new | NEW | |
| DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST | DFUS | $204.9K | 2,501 | flat | 4q | -13.5%-$32.0K | |
| DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST | DFSU | $201.7K | 4,325 | - | new | NEW | |
| ISHARES TR | IWN | $200.2K | 905 | - | new | NEW | |
| NIO INC | NIO | $168.0K | 33,195 | -0.01pp | 3q | -10.3%-$19.3K | |
| EASTMAN KODAK CO | KODK | $103.2K | 11,160 | flat | 3q | HELD |
By sector
Industry comes from the SIC code on each company's own SEC filings, which is self-reported and sometimes out of date. Derivative exposure is counted with the shares. Securities the SEC assigns no industry - funds, trusts, foreign issues - are shown as not classified rather than dropped.
| Sector | Value | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Funds & ETFs | $9.5M | 1.0% |
| Other sectors | $9.7M | 1.0% |
| Not classified | $915.8M | 97.9% |
What the disclosed book did
This is not the fund's return. A 13F shows long US equity positions only, so shorts, bonds, foreign listings, private holdings and cash are all invisible here. What this measures is the quarter's change in value of the positions this manager disclosed, had they been left untouched - the return a reader following the filing would have earned.
| Quarter | Book | Market | Difference | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +11.9% | +14.8% | -2.9% | 100% |
| Q1 2026 | -1.5% | -4.6% | +3.1% | 100% |
| Q4 2025 | +1.1% | +2.4% | -1.2% | 100% |
| Q3 2025 | +5.2% | +7.8% | -2.6% | 100% |
| Q2 2025 | +7.4% | +10.5% | -3.1% | 100% |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3% | -4.6% | +4.2% | 100% |
| Q4 2024 | -2.1% | +2.1% | -4.3% | 100% |
| Q3 2024 | +5.6% | +5.4% | +0.2% | 100% |
Market is SPY over the same two quarter ends, priced the same way as everything else here - the median across every filer reporting it. It is a large-cap US proxy, so a manager holding small caps or biotech will beat or trail it for reasons that are not skill. Prices are quarter-end to quarter-end and say nothing about the path in between, or about trades opened and closed inside a quarter.
Quarter by quarter
| Quarter | Value | Positions | New | Added | Trimmed | Exited | Top 10 | Days to file |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $935.0M | 75 | 10 | 30 | 14 | 2 | 66.4% | 13 |
| Q1 2026 | $781.4M | 67 | 4 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 65.3% | 13 |
| Q4 2025 | $749.9M | 73 | 10 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 65.8% | 29 |
| Q3 2025 | $729.3M | 65 | 5 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 66.6% | 14 |
| Q2 2025 | $668.7M | 60 | 6 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 67.1% | 9 |
| Q1 2025 | $599.6M | 55 | 1 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 67.0% | 16 |
| Q4 2024 | $557.8M | 55 | 0 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 67.5% | 17 |
| Q3 2024 | $587.2M | 57 | 3 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 65.2% | 43 |
| Q2 2024 | $551.5M | 54 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 70.3% | 137 |
| Q1 2024 | $539.1M | 56 | 6 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 69.5% | 228 |
| Q4 2023 | $495.6M | 54 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 68.7% | 319 |
| Q3 2023 | $463.9M | 51 | 4 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 69.0% | 411 |
| Q2 2023 | $466.0M | 47 | 4 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 69.1% | 503 |
| Q1 2023 | $428.1M | 43 | 0 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 68.8% | 594 |
| Q4 2022 | $365.3M | 44 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 68.2% | 684 |
| Q3 2022 | $319.5M | 42 | 2 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 66.6% | 776 |
| Q2 2022 | $315.8M | 44 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 66.0% | 868 |
| Q1 2022 | $306.1M | 45 | 7 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 69.5% | 959 |
| Q4 2021 | $269.3M | 41 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 76.7% | 1,049 |
| Q3 2021 | $246.8M | 39 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 76.7% | 1,141 |
| Q2 2021 | $236.6M | 39 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 79.1% | 1,233 |
| Q1 2021 | $189.6M | 34 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 79.7% | 1,324 |
| Q4 2020 | $163.4M | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80.8% | 1,414 |
Rows marked UNVERIFIED ID, PLACEHOLDER ID, TICKER AS ID or NON-CUSIP ID carry an identifier that is not a valid CUSIP. They are shown because the filer reported that money, but treat the security named with caution - hover the chip for what is wrong with it, and see the methodology.
Held counts consecutive filings in which this manager reported the position, and can reach further back than the quarters listed above: the tabs begin at Q4 2018 because earlier coverage is too sparse to describe a market, but tenure is counted over every filing we hold, some reaching to 2007. A position sold and later rebought starts again from one.
Weight change is the shift in this position's share of the whole book, in percentage points. It is the more useful column: when money flows into or out of a broad fund, almost every holding is bought or sold at once, so added and trimmed largely track flows. A weight that rose while the book shrank is a decision. Both compare with the previous quarter this filer reported, not the previous calendar quarter.