HolderBook

High Probability Advisors, LLC

Reported holdings as of Q2 2026, from 23 quarterly filings.

This filer last reported in Q2 2026; the most recent quarter on file across all filers is Q3 2026. Firms that restructure stop filing under one CIK and start under another, so a successor entity may hold these positions now under a similar name.

CIK
2039415
Reported value
$935.0M
Positions
75
Top 10 weight
66.4%
Filed
2026-07-13
Days after quarter end
13

Holdings

Download these holdings as CSV

SecurityTickerValue SharesWeightWeight change Held Change
GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRGSLC$117.3M827,01712.55%-0.08pp23q+4.9%+$5.5M
ISHARES TRMTUM$110.4M322,02311.81%+2.15pp23q+2.5%+$2.6M
DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUSTDUHP$67.2M1,609,6057.18%+0.05pp17q+6.1%+$3.9M
BLACKROCK ETF TRUSTDYNF$59.9M881,4846.41%+0.22pp8q+5.9%+$3.4M
ISHARES TRNYF$51.5M956,1435.51%+0.24pp23q+23.3%+$9.8M
GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRGSIE$48.6M1,063,6835.20%-0.26pp23q+7.5%+$3.4M
DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUSTDIHP$44.6M1,307,6034.77%-0.27pp17q+7.0%+$2.9M
SCHWAB STRATEGIC TRSCHO$42.5M1,758,8684.54%-0.69pp18q+4.5%+$1.8M
ISHARES TRUSMV$40.2M417,1694.30%-0.37pp23q+6.0%+$2.3M
SCHWAB STRATEGIC TRSCHR$38.8M1,574,3484.15%+0.10pp8q+23.7%+$7.4M
AMERICAN CENTY ETF TRAVUV$36.9M295,5653.94%-0.02pp10q+5.4%+$1.9M
FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUSTFVAL$34.6M443,6653.70%-0.07pp23q+4.5%+$1.5M
SPDR SERIES TRUSTSPIB$31.4M939,1003.36%-0.46pp18q+5.4%+$1.6M
AMERICAN CENTY ETF TRAVEM$28.0M289,8412.99%+0.15pp18q+5.3%+$1.4M
FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUSTFQAL$27.8M341,7502.97%-0.06pp23q+4.6%+$1.2M
ISHARES TRSHYG$24.1M568,5882.58%-0.31pp18q+6.6%+$1.5M
ISHARES TRIUSV$20.9M189,3232.23%-0.10pp23q+6.2%+$1.2M
ISHARES TRIVLU$15.9M380,8821.70%-0.14pp23q+5.1%+$773.0K
GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRGSSC$15.4M169,2291.65%+0.12pp23q+5.6%+$815.0K
SCHWAB STRATEGIC TRFNDC$14.9M306,0341.59%-0.13pp23q+5.6%+$788.4K
SPDR SERIES TRUSTSPTL$11.9M454,3861.27%-0.08pp18q+12.6%+$1.3M
STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF TSPY$9.5M12,7241.02%-0.04pp23qHELD
SPDR SERIES TRUSTSPYM$5.2M58,7380.55%+0.01pp12q+6.1%+$299.0K
VANGUARD MUN BD FDSVTEB$4.8M95,8780.52%+0.06pp23q+32.7%+$1.2M
ISHARES TRIWV$2.2M5,1800.24%-0.01pp23qHELD
ISHARES TRREZ$2.2M23,1020.23%-0.01pp21qHELD
ISHARES TRIXUS$2.0M20,7090.21%flat23q+6.2%+$115.7K
ISHARES TRIVV$1.8M2,4220.19%-0.01pp5q+1.3%+$24.0K
ISHARES TRIWD$1.5M6,2210.16%-0.01pp23qHELD
APPLE INCAAPL$1.4M4,8480.15%-0.01pp23qHELD
DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUSTDFAC$1.3M29,4740.14%-0.01pp10q-4.4%-$60.1K
SPDR SERIES TRUSTSPMD$1.2M18,2510.13%flat12q+5.7%+$66.5K
ISHARES TRACWX$1.2M15,9080.13%-0.01pp16qHELD
SCHWAB STRATEGIC TRSCHB$1.1M37,3550.12%flat10q+2.0%+$21.2K
ISHARES TRIWM$984.0K3,2750.11%flat23qHELD
BROADSTONE NET LEASE INCBNL$971.8K47,0140.10%-0.02pp22q-9.5%-$102.0K
MICROSOFT CORPMSFT$770.9K2,0670.08%-0.03pp22q-10.2%-$88.0K
ALPHABET INCGOOGL$766.6K2,1450.08%flat5q-3.6%-$28.9K
ISHARES TRIJR$732.2K4,9370.08%flat23q-0.8%-$5.8K
TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLCTT$668.0K1,3600.07%flat13q-2.8%-$19.2K
VANGUARD TAX-MANAGED FDSVEA$661.7K9,2860.07%-0.01pp4qHELD
DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUSTDFAT$606.2K8,6720.06%flat10qHELD
ISHARES TROEF$589.1K1,6100.06%flat23qHELD
EATON CORP PLCETN$522.4K1,2260.06%-0.01pp13q-8.4%-$47.7K
ISHARES TRACWI$510.6K3,2530.05%flat23qHELD
ISHARES TRGVI$508.9K4,7970.05%-0.01pp23qHELD
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INCMU$498.7K4320.05%-newNEW
GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRGBIL$472.1K4,7130.05%-0.01pp4qHELD
ISHARES TRIEI$458.3K3,9020.05%-0.01pp23q+0.6%+$2.8K
NVIDIA CORPORATIONNVDA$427.2K2,1350.05%+0.01pp2q+30.3%+$99.2K
SPDR SERIES TRUSTSPSM$402.3K6,9770.04%flat8q+4.7%+$18.2K
ISHARES TRSUSA$398.9K2,5850.04%flat6qHELD
DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUSTDFUV$365.6K6,6460.04%flat10qHELD
HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP INCHIG$364.4K2,7500.04%-0.01pp11qHELD
HOME DEPOT INCHD$344.2K9760.04%-0.01pp15q-3.3%-$11.6K
SCHWAB STRATEGIC TRSCHA$319.4K8,8400.03%flat11qHELD
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTSM$317.1K6640.03%-0.01pp3q-39.1%-$203.9K
ISHARES TRIJH$295.4K3,8310.03%flat3qHELD
VISA INCV$284.1K8280.03%flat4q-3.8%-$11.3K
JPMORGAN CHASE & COJPM$269.7K8240.03%-0.01pp5q-8.4%-$24.9K
COHERENT CORPCOHR$266.3K6750.03%-newNEW
AMAZON COM INCAMZN$261.2K1,0960.03%flat2qHELD
CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDICRDO$243.4K8950.03%-newNEW
ABBVIE INCABBV$240.1K9540.03%flat3q-3.5%-$8.8K
VANGUARD STAR FDSVXUS$217.2K2,5410.02%-newNEW
ASML HLDG NVASML$214.9K1080.02%-newNEW
ISHARES TRSUB$209.8K1,9710.02%flat11qHELD
APPLIED MATLS INCAMAT$208.9K2890.02%-newNEW
HOWMET AEROSPACE INCHWM$208.9K7770.02%-newNEW
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DELBRKB$206.2K4120.02%-newNEW
DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUSTDFUS$204.9K2,5010.02%flat4q-13.5%-$32.0K
DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUSTDFSU$201.7K4,3250.02%-newNEW
ISHARES TRIWN$200.2K9050.02%-newNEW
NIO INCNIO$168.0K33,1950.02%-0.01pp3q-10.3%-$19.3K
EASTMAN KODAK COKODK$103.2K11,1600.01%flat3qHELD

By sector

Industry comes from the SIC code on each company's own SEC filings, which is self-reported and sometimes out of date. Derivative exposure is counted with the shares. Securities the SEC assigns no industry - funds, trusts, foreign issues - are shown as not classified rather than dropped.

Funds & ETFs 1.0%Other sectors 1.0%Not classified 97.9%
 
SectorValueShare
Funds & ETFs$9.5M1.0%
Other sectors$9.7M1.0%
Not classified$915.8M97.9%

What the disclosed book did

This is not the fund's return. A 13F shows long US equity positions only, so shorts, bonds, foreign listings, private holdings and cash are all invisible here. What this measures is the quarter's change in value of the positions this manager disclosed, had they been left untouched - the return a reader following the filing would have earned.

QuarterBookMarket DifferencePriced
Q2 2026+11.9%+14.8%-2.9%100%
Q1 2026-1.5%-4.6%+3.1%100%
Q4 2025+1.1%+2.4%-1.2%100%
Q3 2025+5.2%+7.8%-2.6%100%
Q2 2025+7.4%+10.5%-3.1%100%
Q1 2025-0.3%-4.6%+4.2%100%
Q4 2024-2.1%+2.1%-4.3%100%
Q3 2024+5.6%+5.4%+0.2%100%

Market is SPY over the same two quarter ends, priced the same way as everything else here - the median across every filer reporting it. It is a large-cap US proxy, so a manager holding small caps or biotech will beat or trail it for reasons that are not skill. Prices are quarter-end to quarter-end and say nothing about the path in between, or about trades opened and closed inside a quarter.

Quarter by quarter

QuarterValuePositions NewAddedTrimmed ExitedTop 10 Days to file
Q2 2026$935.0M75103014266.4%13
Q1 2026$781.4M67426161065.3%13
Q4 2025$749.9M7310288265.8%29
Q3 2025$729.3M655286066.6%14
Q2 2025$668.7M6062111167.1%9
Q1 2025$599.6M551249167.0%16
Q4 2024$557.8M5502313267.5%17
Q3 2024$587.2M5731419065.2%43
Q2 2024$551.5M541219370.3%137
Q1 2024$539.1M566228469.5%228
Q4 2023$495.6M543725068.7%319
Q3 2023$463.9M514287069.0%411
Q2 2023$466.0M474292069.1%503
Q1 2023$428.1M430274168.8%594
Q4 2022$365.3M443248168.2%684
Q3 2022$319.5M422285466.6%776
Q2 2022$315.8M4431913466.0%868
Q1 2022$306.1M457234369.5%959
Q4 2021$269.3M413271176.7%1,049
Q3 2021$246.8M390224076.7%1,141
Q2 2021$236.6M396270179.1%1,233
Q1 2021$189.6M344202379.7%1,324
Q4 2020$163.4M33000080.8%1,414

Rows marked UNVERIFIED ID, PLACEHOLDER ID, TICKER AS ID or NON-CUSIP ID carry an identifier that is not a valid CUSIP. They are shown because the filer reported that money, but treat the security named with caution - hover the chip for what is wrong with it, and see the methodology.

Held counts consecutive filings in which this manager reported the position, and can reach further back than the quarters listed above: the tabs begin at Q4 2018 because earlier coverage is too sparse to describe a market, but tenure is counted over every filing we hold, some reaching to 2007. A position sold and later rebought starts again from one.

Weight change is the shift in this position's share of the whole book, in percentage points. It is the more useful column: when money flows into or out of a broad fund, almost every holding is bought or sold at once, so added and trimmed largely track flows. A weight that rose while the book shrank is a decision. Both compare with the previous quarter this filer reported, not the previous calendar quarter.