# Probabilities Fund Management, LLC

> Institutional holdings reported to the SEC as of Q4 2021 on Form 13F. CIK 1608604. Source: https://holderbook.com/funds/1608604-probabilities-fund-management-llc/

- Reported value: $28.1M
- Positions: 11
- Weight of the ten largest: 99.1%
- Filed: 2022-02-11

A 13F reports long US equity positions only. Short positions, bonds, foreign listings, private holdings and cash are not visible, so this is not the manager's whole book.

## Holdings

| Security | Ticker | Value | Shares | Weight | Quarters held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INVESCO QQQ TR | [QQQ](https://holderbook.com/stocks/QQQ/) | $5.7M | 14,240 | 20.2% | 11 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FDS | [VOO](https://holderbook.com/stocks/VOO/) | $5.6M | 12,800 | 19.9% | 12 |
| STATE STR SPDR DOW JONES IND | [DIA](https://holderbook.com/stocks/DIA/) | $5.4M | 14,970 | 19.4% | 10 |
| PROSHARES TR | [UDOW](https://holderbook.com/stocks/UDOW/) | $2.7M | 31,740 | 9.6% | 12 |
| DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST | [SPXL](https://holderbook.com/stocks/SPXL/) | $2.7M | 18,610 | 9.5% | 12 |
| PROSHARES TR | [TQQQ](https://holderbook.com/stocks/TQQQ/) | $2.6M | 15,790 | 9.3% | 11 |
| MICROSOFT CORP | [MSFT](https://holderbook.com/stocks/MSFT/) | $1.3M | 3,720 | 4.5% | 12 |
| INNOVATIVE INDL PPTYS INC | [IIPR](https://holderbook.com/stocks/IIPR/) | $1.1M | 4,200 | 3.9% | 12 |
| APPLIED MATLS INC | [AMAT](https://holderbook.com/stocks/AMAT/) | $420.0K | 2,670 | 1.5% | 5 |
| CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC | [STZ](https://holderbook.com/stocks/STZ/) | $408.0K | 1,624 | 1.5% | 12 |
| APPLE INC | [AAPL](https://holderbook.com/stocks/AAPL/) | $249.0K | 1,400 | 0.9% | 6 |

## What the disclosed book did

Not the fund's return. This is the change in value of the positions disclosed on Form 13F, had they been left untouched, against SPY over the same quarter ends.

| Quarter | Book | Market | Difference | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | +16.5% | +10.7% | +5.8% | 100% |
| Q3 2021 | -0.8% | +0.3% | -1.0% | 100% |
| Q2 2021 | +13.0% | +8.0% | +5.0% | 100% |
| Q1 2021 | +8.1% | +6.0% | +2.1% | 100% |
| Q4 2020 | +19.4% | +11.6% | +7.8% | 100% |
| Q3 2020 | +16.3% | +8.6% | +7.7% | 100% |
| Q2 2020 | +35.3% | +19.6% | +15.7% | 100% |
| Q4 2019 | +13.1% | +8.5% | +4.7% | 100% |

## Quarter by quarter

| Quarter | Value | Positions |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | $28.1M | 11 |
| Q3 2021 | $27.7M | 11 |
| Q2 2021 | $39.3M | 13 |
| Q1 2021 | $45.7M | 12 |
| Q4 2020 | $32.0M | 12 |
| Q3 2020 | $30.2M | 12 |
| Q2 2020 | $35.3M | 9 |
| Q1 2020 | $29.0M | 11 |
| Q3 2019 | $35.2M | 11 |
| Q2 2019 | $43.8M | 13 |
| Q1 2019 | $42.9M | 18 |
| Q4 2018 | $62.0M | 47 |